Revolted Colonies

U.S. Politics and Culture

Category: Polls

And Then There Were…

The double-dozen roster of Democratic hopefuls shrank a little more this week, when Beto O’Rourke ended his run. Whatever got Texans so juiced about his 2018 race against Ted Cruz didn’t transfer to a presidential run.

Even so, the field remains clogged with 17 candidates, most with little chance of success. Tom Steyer, the impeachment guy, has gotten his wish, making him insignificant now that the House officially opened the impeachment inquiry. If the field had not been so crowded, likable, intelligent Cory Booker might have built a following. In this Democratic dogpile, though, he did not make it into the front rank. He will be remembered best for his awesome side-eye directed at O’Rourke’s Latinx introductory message at the first debate.

Kamala Harris closed her offices in New Hampshire this week, a signal that she can wage only one fight at a time. She had surged into the upper tier briefly on Joe Biden-shaming for his decisions in the 1990s that haven’t weathered well. For Harris, she’s depending on Iowa, and it looks like a bust.

Those remaining fall into either the progressive or the moderate camp. Elizabeth Warren holds a significant lead over Bernie Sanders in the Medicare-for-all faction, a symbol of advocacy for meaningful economic reassessment. Warren and Sanders both advocate Medicare for all but are not interchangeable. Andrew Yang, a second-tier candidate, has attracted interest for his unconventional view that each American should receive $1,000.00 per month. It’s not a crazy notion once he explains it. He is an exciting figure, who deserves serious attention, if only for his ideas. Unfortunately, Yang and the rest of the progressives will be tagged as socialists, still considered anathema in a country that has passed and embraced several popular social welfare programs since the end of World War II.

The moderates in the field have a different sort of challenge. Joe Biden remains the front-runner. He’s plowed through a handful of gaffs. He showed indecision in feebly responding to Trump’s attack. Some of the polls reflect weakening, but he is hanging around the front of the pack. Ask yourself where are the megabucks donations fled for a well-liked middle of the road candidate with a modicum of gravitas. Fund-raising has plunged, and his candidacy is idling. Aside from his repeated boast to beat Trump like a drum, Biden hasn’t had much to say.

The other moderates are languishing. Pete Buttigieg has had a great run this summer, out-earning the competition, and has performed well in the debates. Amy Klobuchar is still having trouble getting momentum, which is unfortunate for her. She had an impressive performance in the latest contest. She hasn’t been hit with many negatives, only being a demanding boss.

To the list of lies, damnable lies, and statistics, we must consider polls, a particularly undependable form of statistics. The national general election polls of 25 October show Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Pete Buttigieg all beating Trump by significant margins. But general election isn’t won on general trends. Let’s take a look at how the candidates are doing in some of the battleground states.

. Among the most recent state polls, Emerson in Arizona found Trump in a statistical tie with Biden and Warren and with a slight edge over Sanders. There is a significant shadow over Arizona, which may resonate nationally. On healthcare, Republicans and Independents poll highest to keep things the same, then for a public option. Medicare for all ranks slightly ahead of shamanism. It’s even more unpopular among Independents than Republicans.

Among Democratic primary voters, Biden – keep healthcare the same – polls highest – but then Sanders and Warren – Medicare for all – follow closely. Buttigieg and Klobuchar – public option — are far down the scale. In the general election, though, they may be more competitive in capturing red-to-purple Arizona.

Purple Minnesota goes robustly for favorite daughter Klobuchar against Trump, and also for the general poll leaders. Minnesota went blue in 2016 by a slim margin.

Trump’s triumph in Wisconsin in 2016 was critical to his election. Marquette’s results of 23 October present a different outlook. Biden, Warren, and Sanders lead the incumbent, and Buttigieg trails but not by much. Klobuchar prospects are looking up.  She claims to know her beer from her foam, and that will serve her well in a Midwestern pub crawl.

North Carolina, another critical state captured by Trump in 2016, is polling blue. On 14 October, the top Democrats led Trump by slim margins, and Buttigieg and Harris trailed much the same.

Florida, too, is in play, but probably turned slightly bluer on the news that Trump is now one of their own. The state will likely remain red with a progressive running but could turn blue with the right moderate.

The leftward pull is dominant in the Democratic primary but is a handicap in swing states in the general election. There are troubling signs now that neither Sanders nor Warren may be unable pull in the critical, independent voters. Arizona’s split on health care is an indication.

These figures, unreliable though they are, support the American centrist convention. Democrats who play to the center draw less suspicion than those advocating the need for political upheaval. Except for 2016, we are a gradualist nation by and large.

If Biden can survive the primary, he can win the election, so say the polls. If not, Sanders and Warren will bear the socialist stigma, sending undecided voters back to Trump or keeping them quietly at home.

The outside play is for Amy Klobuchar. Her campaign has been relatively unexciting. But her performance in the debates has improved. Her positions on core issues are comfortably mainstream. Most importantly, she knows the difference between the fluff of foam and the bedrock of beer. My guess is that she will poll well in battleground states. If Biden falters, his support will swing to her, especially in the midwest.

Pete Buttigieg consistently has been the most impressive candidate on the husting, by far. His youth may be a plus rather than a minus. His sexual orientation is not the verboten issue it once was. Still, First Husband Chasten Glazmen’s TV tour of the White House will please and infuriate in equal measure. Still it’s possible that America will have a gay president before a female one.

 

Clinton, Kaine and the Four Corners Offense

College basketball didn’t have a shot clock.  It had the Four Corners offense, a stall tactic to run down the game clock so the trailing team couldn’t catch up.  The stall only worked if there were no turnovers.   It was boring to watch, and the college game now has a shot clock.   The Four Corners offense is still used in hockey, a game played with pads, and politics, a game played without them.

 Hillary Clinton went into a Four Corners set yesterday, naming  Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate. She might think if she plays mistake-free till November she will beat Donald Trump.   She’s not clearly ahead in many polls but she is ahead in most of them.  She expects Trump to continue to have fiascoes, as he did all this week.  The RNC was entertaining as Trump predicted.   Instead of a Beauty Pageant, however, it was Demolition Derby. Clinton shouldn’t count on Trump’s continued self-destruction, although he is not a quick learner. .

Clinton of all people shouldn’t feel safe.   In 2008, then-Senator Obama came out of nowhere, overwhelmed and outperformed her. The Coronation was suspended due to a leaky foundation. Clinton was outdone by a superb, unflappable politician, who as President has presided over eight stormy years of American life.

“The best person did not win,” a Hillary supporter has said.  “You are what your record says you are,” Bill Parcells said.  The better campaign won.

In 2008, her campaign staff was a shambles.  In 2016, Clinton’s entire organization has run smoothly. Their ground-game and strategy have kept her ahead in the delegate count from the beginning. She had the super-delegates and kept them.  Bernie is a Johnny-Come-Lately to the Party.  Hillary is the Queen of Clubs.  Props to Bernie Sanders for making it a close race, but she played the system better. Her political team has been out in front since the beginning, and there have been no new mistakes. Clinton’s challenge is neutralizing her past mistakes and reining in Mr. Bill, a heat-seeking missile with faulty guidance.

Tim Kaine was sent over from Central Casting.  He looks old enough to be President and has the requisite experience in federal and state government, executive and legislative.  He is a Liberal who can win in Virginia, a big purple blotch on the electoral map. He is neutral enough to make Bernie’s supporters squeal with disappointment. With a Democrat now in the Virginia Governor’s mansion, Kaine’s Senate seat is safe if he has to be replaced after the election.  It’s a smart political move. Not edgy or inspired, not desperate or impulsive.   Hillary made a high percentage pass, but there is still plenty of time on the game clock.

(C) The Revolted Colonies 2016

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